After 61 days of dropping the ball on this blog, I’m (kinda) back. Given the amount of work on at the moment in both Geneva and Oxford this may be another fly-by-night affair with the narciss-o-sphere, but my pride demands that I at least try to record some random thoughts every now and again on the topic of scenarios, uncertainty and other vaguely interesting topics. For my future self as much as you, to be honest.
So today, as I prepare to jump off to a phone conference, I offer the following question that has been bugging me of late:
- Are scenarios a useful way to explore an organizational fitness landscape?
- Is it possible to theoretically show how scenarios might map out both a perceived and real morphology of competitive advantage, given both contextual (wholly external, macro-environmental) and transactional (closer, influence-able) shifts?
- Can this be systematized, and can one correct for bias in the way the scenario process is performed to get as close to what people might think of as “reality” as possible?
- Is it possible to link this to any existing or future empirical work in terms of the usefulness of this approach?
Thanks to the wonderful people here at the Said Business School, I have a massive pile of reading that might help me answer these questions, but if you happen to have some insights into complexity theory and could offer some thoughts or ideas, that would be most helpful.